The Decision in Three Numbers
Figures are illustrative and used to show the structure of the math, not quoted market terms. Your building's numbers depend on its size, condition, rent, and submarket.
An empty suite feels like a problem to solve as fast as possible, and that instinct is what usually costs owners money. The choice in front of you isn't "how do I fill this." It's a comparison: what you net after leasing the space up, versus what you net selling it empty. Those are two different buyers, two different timelines, and often two very different numbers.
Start with what the vacancy actually costs each month
Before you can compare paths, you need the carrying number. On a 10,000 SF suite at an illustrative $1.20/SF NNN, you're losing $12,000 a month in rent. But the rent is only part of it. When a suite is empty, the operating expenses that a triple-net tenant would normally reimburse — taxes, insurance, common area maintenance — land back on you. Add debt service if the building is financed.
Run six months of that and you're at roughly $72,000 in foregone rent alone, before a dollar of leasing commission or tenant improvement money. That figure is the yardstick every other decision gets measured against.
The lease-up path: what stabilized income really costs to create
Leasing is the right answer more often than not, but it is rarely as clean as "sign a tenant." A realistic lease-up budget in East Bay small-bay industrial includes marketing time, a leasing commission on both sides of the deal, tenant improvement dollars to make the space work for a specific user, and usually a period of free rent to get the deal signed.
The payoff is that stabilized income is what an investor buys. At a 6.5% cap rate, every $12,000 of annual NOI you add carries roughly $185,000 of value. A 10,000 SF suite leased at $1.20/SF NNN produces about $144,000 a year — call it $2.2 million of value created against a lease-up cost that is usually a fraction of that.
The variables that decide whether that math works are the ones buyers and tenants both look at: clear height, loading, power, yard, and the condition of the roof and slab. A functional building leases. A building with a real functional problem absorbs concessions until the problem is solved.
The sale path: vacancy changes who is allowed to buy
Here is the part owners tend to miss. A leased building is priced by an investor off income — NOI divided by a cap rate. A vacant building competes in the owner-user market, where a business is buying utility rather than yield and can often finance the purchase with roughly 10% down through an SBA 504 loan.
Owner-users routinely pay above what the income math supports, because they are comparing the purchase to their own rent, not to a cap rate. When your in-place market rent is modest relative to what functional buildings are trading for per square foot in your size range, selling empty can be the higher number — and it skips the lease-up cost entirely.
Running both tracks at once
You do not have to choose on day one. A dual-track campaign markets the building for sale and for lease simultaneously, and lets the market tell you which pool is deeper. It costs almost nothing extra to do, because the same tour, the same flyer, and the same submarket outreach serve both audiences.
Two cautions. First, the offering has to be priced credibly on both sides, or you look unserious to both. Second, know your own decision rule before you start — if a lease at market terms and a sale at a defined price both arrive in the same week, decide in advance which one wins and why.
Pro Tip: Decide before the space is empty, not after
The strongest position is 12 to 18 months ahead of a known expiration, while you still have income and options. Once the suite is dark, every month of deliberation is a month of carrying cost, and buyers and tenants can both read the urgency in how the building is being marketed.
How to decide
Three questions usually settle it. Is your achievable market rent strong relative to what functional buildings your size are trading for per square foot? If yes, lease it up and sell stabilized later. Can you comfortably carry the vacancy for six to twelve months? If not, the sale path removes the risk. And is the building clean owner-user product — right size, good loading, usable yard? If yes, you have a second buyer pool that most sellers don't.
Whichever way you go, the lease you eventually sign is what a future buyer underwrites, so structure matters as much as rate. Our guide to NNN lease structures covers how expense pass-throughs and escalations show up in your building's value years later.
Have a Suite Coming Empty?
Send me the size, the loading, and the expiration date, and I'll run both numbers — what it leases for and what it sells for empty — so you can compare them side by side. No obligation.
Run Both Numbers on My Building