Alameda County Industrial Market Guide 2026

If you read only the headline numbers, the Alameda County industrial market looks soft. Direct vacancy across the East Bay reached 8.4% in the first quarter of 2026, up 80 basis points from a year earlier, and average asking rents fell about 10.6% year over year to $1.62 per square foot per month. Leasing activity was down roughly half from the same quarter in 2025.

That's the aggregate. It is also not the market most owners in this county are actually in. The softness is concentrated in large-format distribution space, while smaller buildings — the bulk of what private owners hold — are running at less than 6% vacancy. Where your building sits on that spectrum matters far more than the countywide average.

The submarkets, side by side

Alameda County isn't one market. It's at least three: the I-880 spine from Oakland down through Hayward, the south county cluster of Union City and Fremont/Newark, and the Tri-Valley over the hill. Here is where each stood at the most recent full submarket read.

Two things jump out. Emeryville's $4.50 asking rate isn't an industrial number — that submarket is dominated by lab and flex conversion product, and it should be read separately from anything warehouse. And the spread between Union City at 5.4% and Berkeley/Albany at 16.2% is nearly eleven points inside one county. An owner quoting "the East Bay average" to a buyer is quoting a number that describes almost nobody's building.

The I-880 spine: Oakland, San Leandro, Hayward

This is the county's core warehouse and distribution corridor, and it is carrying most of the softness. Hayward alone gave back more than 629,000 square feet of direct occupancy in the first quarter, on top of a negative 1.2 million square feet across 2025 — the largest drag in the county. Oakland gave back another 386,000 square feet.

San Leandro is the standout going the other direction, absorbing more than 570,000 square feet in a single quarter at a $1.67 asking rate — the second-highest true industrial rent in the county. That's a market where functional mid-size product is still getting leased.

South county: Union City and Fremont/Newark

Union City is the tightest submarket in Alameda County at 5.4% direct vacancy, helped by a constrained inventory of only 14.3 million square feet and very little new supply. Fremont/Newark is the largest submarket in the county at 58.2 million square feet and still posted positive absorption and a $1.72 asking rate, supported by manufacturing and advanced-industry demand rather than pure logistics. Most of the county's active construction pipeline sits here — roughly 413,000 square feet underway.

The Tri-Valley: Livermore, Dublin, Pleasanton

The Tri-Valley runs on its own cycle and improved sharply into mid-2026. Vacancy fell to 10.3% in the second quarter from 13.8% in the first, with trailing-twelve-month net absorption swinging positive at roughly 357,000 square feet. Average NNN asking rents held near $22.23 per square foot annually, sale pricing averaged about $323 per square foot, and cap rates sat at 6.3%. Elevated vacancy, but demonstrably improving demand — a different story than the I-880 corridor is telling.

The small-bay exception — and why it matters to you

Here is the number most owners should anchor on. Sorted by building size rather than geography, the 5,000 to 24,999 square foot band across the East Bay was running 5.7% direct vacancy — about 270 basis points tighter than the market as a whole — at a $1.41 average asking rate. Compare that with the 200,000-square-foot-and-up band at 9.9% and the 50,000 to 99,999 band at 9.6%.

In other words, the vacancy that made the headlines is largely a big-box story. If you own a 12,000 square foot building in San Leandro or a small-bay multi-tenant park in Hayward, your competitive set is the tightest segment of the market, not the softest. That distinction is worth real money when a buyer tries to price your building off a countywide vacancy figure.

What this means if you own here

Three practical takeaways. First, know which of the three Alameda markets you're actually in — the answer changes your comp set entirely. Second, if your building is under 25,000 square feet, the supply picture is working in your favor even while the headlines say otherwise. Third, asking rents have come off about 10% year over year, which means leases signed in 2021 and 2022 may no longer be as far below market as you assume; it's worth re-running the gap before you count on it.

For the broader regional picture, our East Bay industrial mid-year 2026 review covers where the market stands across both counties. And if you want the number rather than the narrative, our guide on what your industrial building is worth in 2026 walks through how the income math actually gets done.

Sources: Kidder Mathews East Bay Industrial market research, 1Q 2026 (data source: CoStar); Lee & Associates East Bay / Tri-Valley Industrial Market Overview, Q2 2026. Figures reflect the most recent published submarket data available at the time of writing and are subject to revision.